Mark Levy’s Economic Update – October 31, 2011 Happy Halloween! I say “happy” because October is proving to be the “bear – killer” month of the equity markets once again with an approximate monthly gain of 13 percent. Corporate earning reports seem to be the main driver of this impressive rally. Earnings and revenues are 9.3% and 1.7% above analysts’ forecasts. Earnings for the 134 companies are 16.5 % higher than a year ago, and revenues are up 8.8 % year over year. About 69% of the companies have a positive earnings surprise and a positive revenue surprise. 74% have higher earnings year over year versus 81% with higher revenues. Last Thursday, October 27, 2011, we saw a huge equity market rally driven by the Euro zone’s plan to address the Greek debt issue. Today, Monday, October 31, 2011 the markets are a bit weak as concern regarding Italian and Spanish debt rises after a disappointing bond auction. So, what does this mean for our investments? It means staying the course is working. Not over reacting to the television talking heads that want to fuel worry and concern. A month ago, all that was being presented was the idea of a “double dip” recession. Now, that is not being discussed at all. It is interesting how the “analyst” community can act as a herd and the flip flopping reminds me of a presidential politician once saying; “I was for it, till I was against it”. We believe in a longer term bullish scenario that will ultimately be represented in rising equity prices. In the short term (next few weeks) we think there is the possibility of choppiness or weakness as there are challenging waters to still navigate. Important economic data is due to be released including the October readings on jobs, business sentiment and consumer spending. Also, the November 23rd deadline is looming for the super – committee to vote on a plan with $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction. These and a few other issues are coming in November and may “spook” the markets. Ten year Treasury note interest rates rose in October (a high of 2.4% was touched last week) but the jury is still out whether or not this is the start of a prolonged rally in rates. Ongoing Federal Reserve policy and a slower growth scenario for the United States and global economies could keep rates low. On the flip side, a faster growing global economy than anticipated could spur a rise in rates that we are ever watchful for. We wish you a happy November and as always, please contact us if you need any additional information or answers to any of your questions. – Mark The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. * Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Information provided by Weekly Market Commentary @ LPL Financial and Yahoo Finance, both dated October 31, 2011.