Mark Levy’s Economic Update – Tuesday, October 9, 2018
October 18th, 2018 by Legacy Wealth Planning
I attempt to be apolitical (non-political) in these newsletters because my client base is broad and varied and I like to honor our American values and traditions and try to respect the right of all to their personal views. Know then, when I bring up events, I am bringing them up as they affect investing, not as a promoter or as a naysayer. That disclaimer being said, wow, what a month or two it has been. Investing has taken a back seat in the media in favor of the Judge Kavanaugh and Dr. Ford controversy and the ensuing Senate vote, along with all the issues that have risen as a result. Surprisingly, the equity markets have been for the most part positive with the Dow 30 Industrial Average marking a new high last week near or on Oct 3rd when it got close to 27,000. Today it is trading at 26,508, down a bit from those highs, but not much. The concern of the moment is mainly in interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury Bond, a common benchmark, is currently paying 3.22%, the highest interest rate it has paid since 2011. As a reminder, equity markets worry about swiftly rising interest rates because this can cool an expanding economy and pull funds out of equity markets in favor of fixed income investments, like bonds. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is in control of overnight lending rates to banks and is a big influencer in this process. The hope of many investors is that the Fed will act gradually as the economy improves and that interest rates rising in this manner will not create shocks to the system. LPL Research believes that current price and wage pressures will remain manageable for the Fed, since inflation at the moment hasn’t forced a change in their monetary policy. Looking around the globe, the United States continues to dominate, from an investing stand point. Overall, LPL Research expects global growth to slow in 2019 but remain strong enough to continue to support global economies and markets. They say the United States will continue to be the growth engine for developed markets, although they do see some upside for Japan. They also say the front-loaded impact from the fiscal stimulus is likely to fade somewhat. Emerging markets, which have struggled of late, should experience fading headwinds, allowing their economies to enjoy a stronger pace of growth than developed countries. LPL also expects China’s growth to slow, but avoid a hard landing as their economy rebalances. We hope this newsletter finds you well. As always, if you have any questions regarding your accounts or investing in general, do not hesitate to contact us. We hope you enjoy the season as summer turns to fall and wish you the best. – Mark The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted. Some of this research material has been prepared by LPL Financial. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Referenced material: LPL Research Weekly Market Commentary & LPL Research Weekly Economic Commentary, both dated October 8, 2018. Approved Tracking #: 1-781732.