Martin McClellan-Second Quarter Newsletter 2014
August 13th, 2014 by Legacy Wealth Planning
I apologize about the tardiness of this quarterly report. I have been amazed at the lacking rationality I have been seeing in the news, markets and media. Up until today, August 5, 2014 I have not been able to grasp any words that would have much relevant meaning to my clients. I have been struggling to interpret the convoluted message of confusion the media outlets have created in a manner that is clear and concise and understandable to you my valued client. What prompted this literary explosion on my part, in the last 48 hours I have had 6 client calls and all have asked, “What is going on?” The pundits are looking for the S&P 500 index to correct to 1800 and that is when they will buy; a strategy that in history has never worked as the market does not go to a predetermined level and then you buy. Since April 1, 2009 to August 1, 2014, the Dow Jones Industrial average, after a drop of 44.9% from October 1, 2007 to April 1, 2009, has climbed approximately 104% which is an approximate average annual return of 13.9%.[ DJIA published chart; WSJ] During the period of April 2009 to present, there has been an average of approximately $10 trillion dollars not in the market; about double that from 2001 until 2007! [Statistics from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors] I would bet that the majority of that cash was “waiting” for the right time to buy. So, because the markets have done so well since the “financial crisis” the tone out there is, “we must be headed for a correction”. My retort… “What is going to cause that correction?” Further I wonder, “is there anything dangerously wrong with the market and our business economy that would cause such a correction?” Too these questions, I really do not have an answer. Corporate America as I reported back in April is quite strong, growing and conducting business possibly better than it ever has. Earnings for the most recent quarter ending July 31 have been good. Three quarters of the companies that have reported so far have beat on EPS and two thirds have stated better than expected levels of revenue. [Yahoo Finance, August 6, 2014] The markets fundamentally from a price to earnings standpoint do not seem to be grossly overvalued. Per the Wall Street Journal Market Data site, as of August 5, 2014 the Dow Jones Industrial P/E ratio is 15.71 and the S&P 500 is at 18.80; a bit pricey but not crazy and the forward looking numbers are lower! There is still major skepticism regarding stock investing (presently $11 Trillion of cash not invested) which does not demonstrate “euphoria” in terms of stock price; a necessary element to market weakness. What is happening here? The media is trying to convince you that you should sell and go away! They are capitalizing upon the fact that investing at times can be overwhelmingly mental for us the retail investor. The majority of retail investors are not operating on the math of investing rather the emotion. Buying stocks is an act of optimism but holding that stock, or maintaining your investment plan through tough times has to be an act of disciplined conviction. I refer to my initial paragraph…”What is going on? A Wall Street Journal / NBC poll released this morning showed 76% of Americans lack confidence that their kids will be better off than they are. 71% of us say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction. We’ve got Putin demonstrating school boy tactics in the Ukraine, the Middle East is once again falling apart (but hasn’t this been going on for a couple thousand years?) and concerns of a potential Ebola outbreak. We’re surly, tired, and just a little scared in general. That’s not bullish and that is what the media is capitalizing upon. We have to focus upon our convictions and the true nature of why we invest…we buy earnings and again, so far for the quarter ended July 31, those earnings are growing. I’m not trying to scare you. I’m telling you what is “going on” as I see it. Keep in mind that none of these factors is fatal to the long term performance of a portfolio. I still love the challenges of investing and I hold conviction that the investments, allocations and income strategies that I have implemented in my clients accounts since 2009 is appropriate and worthy of my continued emphasis upon staying the course. The “professional” investors that are waiting for some buying point to get into stocks is not our strategy and that is because we have dividends and interest types of investments within the majority of the accounts that I manage and that adds value and support in a declining market. I am not saying that you will not see market value swings in your accounts, you will, what I am saying is that I feel very confident that the long term patience will reward you and that you should discuss with me your concerns before forming a belief from the news that you are hearing. I look forward to hearing from you and discussing your personal situation, concerns and beliefs. I strive to help all my clients in obtaining a complete understanding of their portfolios, investments and how the news effects them. Never hesitate to call upon us, thanks for your continued support and belief in the work that we do here at Legacy Wealth Planning, please share our story with others and until October, enjoy your family, life and adventures. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly