Martin McClellan’s October 2012 Quarterly Report
October 18th, 2012 by Legacy Wealth Planning
Greetings All: Looking back over the past 9 months I am pleased that our investment philosophy has been to “stay the course”, focusing upon your investment plans and basically ignoring the media pundits that would have had you sitting on the sidelines in cash. This also causes me to reflect on the past four to five years (basically since late 2007 into 2008) in that our investment philosophy here at Legacy Wealth Planning was to focus upon our clients investment needs in a manner that protected them from further adverse market action but more importantly kept our clients in high quality, value oriented investments that have allowed them to recognize investment returns consistent with their risk tolerance; in short, we avoided being swayed by the media 5 years ago, hunkered down with good solid investment advice allowing our clients to benefit from the “economic recovery” that has seen a 105.57% S&P 500 market return from March 2, 2009 when the S&P 500 was at 700.82 to September 28, 2012 where the index closed that day at 1440.67. All the while, the media telling you the USA was coming to an end; credibility of the media established…let us move forward The first thing that I want to share with you is a bit about “Corporate America”. They have built up huge cash surpluses over the past 5 years (Standard and Poor’s FactSet, 9/30/12). Why? Assumedly politics. They are waiting to see what happens with the elections and the fiscal issues presently undergoing debate. They are looking for certainty… what they may get at best is “some” clarity. That clarity present, these corporations must start doing something with their cash; expansion and capital expenditures; dividend payout increases; merger and acquisitions; share buybacks. Regardless, that potentially means more money in the economy, more jobs, better consumer confidence; an all-around economic positive. How about the population size of the emerging “global” middle class? Here is one for you. Although not as affluent as the middle class in America, India’s middle Class now has a population greater than the entire population of the USA and China’s middle Class could exceed our population within a few years. That equates to increased sales of toasters, cell phones, washer and dryers, televisions, etc. This is good. This is not what you are hearing in the news but it is what is happening. In fact, today 50% of the global Gross Domestic Product [GDP] (goods and services being bought and sold) are generated from the emerging markets like India and China (Standard and Poor’s MSCI, IMF FactSet 9/30/12). 20 years ago, it was less than 10% and as these emerging markets build larger and larger middle class populations, global economic growth is likely to follow. Humm…not as dismal as it has been made out to be. Most dominant in the thoughts of America are the issues of the election and what is going to happen regarding fiscal and tax issues presently being referred to as the “fiscal cliff” – another media derived term to instill fear and send the investor in the wrong direction. Well, let’s take a look at what happens if our present Administration, Congress and Senate do nothing: According to most analysts, the US would see a 3% to 4% decline in our GDP. Meaning…growth in the US that is targeted presently at about 2% would experience ato 1% to 2% retraction; in other words… Deflation! That certainly would put an abrupt end many political careers and deflation is not, and has not been, in the forecast…anywhere. We will see change. It is inevitable. However I do not think we will see changes that will affect us in such a way that our quality of life will be altered adversely. In the past couple weeks, we have seen more encouraging reports…on October 5, the US Department of Labor reported that unemployment dropped to 7.8%. Again, regardless of where the number comes from or its validity, it is an improved number. Jobs are being created. Housing numbers have shown consistent improvement and the US Manufacturing numbers have shown improvement. The latter is very important as it shows that we are making more goods right here at home. In 2007 moving into 2008, hindsight tells us that because of the banking and mortgage industry deception we fell into a huge financial crisis that affected everyone negatively. Present day? We are in a far stronger position than what existed 5 years ago; unfortunately… we just have to navigate through the “for profit” pontifications of a larger number of self-serving “know-it-alls” gracing the television, papers and magazines in order to find a logical reality. Confidence is still cautious but improving. Europe is still 9.75 years away from conclusion. The consumer is present in the marketplace. The retail numbers have shown improvement. US auto sales numbers last reported were solid and showed improvement. We have 30 more days of this dreary election campaign. We certainly have clarity on what is – “wrong and bad” with the opposing candidates but more importantly, we still live in a Nation where progress, growth, innovation and the ”entrepreneurial spirit” is very much alive! Economic conditions are still not perfect but when will they ever be? Have they ever been? Headline news, sensationalism, will be ever present and will certainly create market reaction [let us talk when that happens and make sure we handle it appropriately for your particular situation]. Inflation is a word they feel they must discuss but it simply is not present in the near term and interest rates have been mandated by the Fed to stay low until 2014? 2015? At any rate… for some time into the future! I would like to close with a present statistic that saddens me. The majority of investors do not trust financial advisors! It does not surprise me, however, it causes me great concern because potentially 2 out of every 3 people you talk too, that do not presently have a trusted financial advisor relationship, are trying to navigate the markets without any guidance or assistance. My quarterly reports have never tried to sell anything. My attempt is to provide explanation, reason and education helping you as an investor in making the best decisions for you and your family. Please, share this letter with others as the opportunity presents itself. You will be providing them a great referral. Thanks. I thank you for your continued business and further appreciate all the great referrals that you have introduced me too. Have a great Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year celebration. Be safe, enjoy family, live, love and laugh and I will continue my written diatribes of all things financial in 2013! Regards, Martin Martin McClellan The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views held by LPL Financial.