October 10, 2013 Greetings All; As we begin Quarter 4 of 2013 I wonder… When will we again enter the holiday season (read-the fourth quarter) with some sort of confidence in our political system and economy? Last year at this time we were focused upon the “fiscal cliff” (2012); a few years before that it was the governmental and economic situations of Europe; specifically Greece that began in 2008. Today, our lawmakers are playing games with the full faith and credit of the United States and our confidence and satisfaction is once again in check. It’s not difficult to understand why we as a nation are so frustrated and why the equity and bond markets are also taking note in a very unsettling way. Over the past 4 months, investors have had to deal with more politics – FED tapering, Government shutdown, Debt Ceiling issues, and global news – Japan, China, Syria, Iraq, than I can ever remember in such a short period. It is no wonder investors continue to deal with uncertainty and frustration with investing. However, historically we always seem to get through these rough spots and prosper as a nation. That said; let’s look at a few “major” rough spots investors have overcome during the past 50 plus years (Source – Wikipedia):
- North Korea, Syria, Iraq: 2013
- Serial debt ceiling crises: 2013
- The Sequester: 2013
- Detroit: 2013
- The IRS scandal: 2013
- Benghazi: 2012
- US Loss of AAA rating: 2011
- Jon Corzine and MF Global: 2011
- Obama Care: 2009
- Quantitative Easing, 1-2 & 3: 2008 – ?
- Failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman: 2008
- The Greek default: 2008-2010
- The real estate bubble: 2007
- The dot-com bust: 2001
- 9-11: 2001
- Long Term Capital: 1998
- Repeal of Glass Steagall: 1998
- Iraq invades Kuwait: 1990
- The Milken affair at Drexel: 1989
- EF Hutton check kiting: 1985
- The failure Continental Illinois Bank: 1982
- AT&T break-up: 1982
- Stagflation: 1970
- The Kennedy Assassination: 1963
During these events, equity and bond markets fluctuated, investors were certain that the sky was falling, media outlets were playing on that fear and many made “reactionary” decisions regarding their investments in the short term. Decisions that probably turned out incorrect for the long term. Most recently, I remember the high level of investor angst during the “Greek” crisis. According to this news report of 7 October 2013 from Dow Jones New – Greece’s Government has forecast that their economy will rebound to grow by 0.6% in 2014 vs. a contraction of 4% in 2013, boosted by a recovery in investment, exports and tourism. So again, another major issue, has been worked through, solved and is showing a positive forecast. Here we sit… 10 October, and the US Government is in its tenth day of closure. Wow…this will make for great subject matter during my year end report! The equity markets are down, the news is unfavorable and many of my clients are now simply fed up: not wondering what to do but contemplating whether or not they want to continue investing, period. I don’t blame them. Our economy, savings, hard work should not be used as a pawn in this political game of Chess! My belief, optimistic as it tends to be, is we do not let these political games effect our investment decisions in the short term. We live in a capitalistic economy with growth as its dominant trait. There will come a point when our elected officials realize they must do their jobs and take action. At that point they will pass or adopt some law or legislation that no-one has the time to digest, let alone, understand and the Government will “reopen” and our economic recovery should continue as it has for the past 5 years. Now don’t get me wrong, there are still many unknown issues we must deal with as we move forward but there are many supposedly intelligent people working on those issues with a fair amount of resolve. The solutions may not always be how we would solve them but they will be solutions just the same; only history will tell but if you refer back to the list above, solutions to those dilemmas, in some way, were formed and we moved positively forward. There are still good things happening out in the economy but there simply is a lot going on! I am interpreting the data every day but the cross currents of this daily news seem to effect one issue positively and another differing issue negatively. Sometimes it is difficult to determine what news is good news. In any case, I would like to suggest that you and I continue our investment conversations as the needs arise, maintain an emphasis on quality asset allocation and diversification and look for answers in the longer term direction and try to manage the shorter term activity conscientiously. On a positive note, we added a new member to our Legacy Wealth Planning team. Since the Elston Group joined us in October of 2012 we felt the need to have Jenny move back into the Office Manager position. As you know, Jenny has been working directly with me and my partner, Chris Vargas, as our administrative assistant for the last year. While she has been phenomenal in that position her knowledge and expertise of all things Legacy make her the perfect choice as our Office Manager. Many of you have had the opportunity to develop a great relationship with her and know that will continue because she will be just as involved as before but in a different capacity. To fill her spot as our Administrative Assistant, we have hired Ashlee Coffman. Ashlee comes to us with over 6 years of industry experience and we want to welcome her to the Legacy Wealth Planning family. When you find yourself in this part of town, give me a call so we can set-up an appointment allowing me to personally introduce you. As I finish, I want to leave you with a couple “global” pieces of news just released, 1) China’s Li expects its growth thru September of this year will show to have been approximately 7.5% and 2) Japan’s machinery orders rise to highest since 2008 [both from Bloomberg, 9 Oct.]. There is good happening! I thank you for your continued business and your continuing referrals. I enjoy that opportunity you have entrusted to me. I send my best to you and your family for the upcoming holiday season and please never hesitate to call upon us when needed. To be continued…January 2014. Regards, Martin
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted